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| 等 级：资深长老 |
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| 注册日期：2002-12-05 |
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Please go into
> Japanese save a lot. They do not spend much. Also Japan exports far more
> than it imports. Has an annual trade surplus of over $100 billions, Yet
> Japanese economy is considered weak, even collapsing.
>
> Americans spend, save little. Also US imports more than it exports. Has
> an
> annual trade deficit of over $400 billion. Yet, the American economy is
> considered strong and trusted to get stronger.
>
> But where from do Americans get money to spend? They borrow from Japan,
> China and even India. Virtually others save for the US to spend. Global
> savings are mostly invested in US, in dollars. India itself keeps its
> foreign currency assets of over $50 billions in US securities. China has
> sunk over $160 billion in US securities. Japan's stakes in US securities
> is
> in trillions.
>
> Result:
> The US has taken over $5 trillion from the world. So, as the world saves
> for
> the US, Americans spend freely. Today, to keep the US consumption going,
> that is for the US economy to work, other countries have to remit $180
> billion every quarter, that is $2 billion a day, to the US! Otherwise
> the US
> economy would go for a six. (a cricket terminology for home-run) So will
> the
> global economy. The result will be no different if US consumers begin
> consuming less.
>
> A Chinese economist asked a neat question. Who has invested more, US in
> China, or China in US? The US has invested in China less than half of
> what
> China has invested in US. The same is the case with India. We have
> invested
> in US over $50 billion. But the US has invested less than $20 billion in
> India.
>
> Why the world is after US? The secret lies in the American spending,
> that
> they hardly save. In fact,
> they use their credit cards to spend their future income. That the US
> spends
> is what makes it attractive to export to the US. So US imports more than
> what it exports year after year.
>
> The result:
> The world is dependent on US consumption for its growth. By its
> deepening
> culture of consumption, the US has habituated the world to feed on US
> consumption. But as the US needs money to finance its consumption, the
> world
> provides the money.
>
> It's like a shopkeeper providing the money to a customer so that the
> customer keeps buying from the shop. The customer will not buy, the shop
> won't have business, unless the shopkeeper funds him. The US is like the
> lucky customer. And the world is like the helpless shopkeeper financier.
>
>
> Who is America's biggest shopkeeper financier? Japan of course. Yet its
> Japan which is regarded as weak. Modern economists complain that
> Japanese do
> not spend, so they do not grow. To force the Japanese to spend, the
> Japanese
> government exerted it self. Reduced the savings rates, even charged the
> savers. Even then the Japanese did not spend (habits don't change, even
> with
> taxes, do they?).
>
> Their traditional postal savings alone is over $1.2 trillions, about
> three
> times the Indian GDP. Thus, savings, far from being the strength of
> Japan,
> has become its pain. Hence, what is the lesson?
>
> That is, a nation cannot grow unless the people spend, not save. Not
> just
> spend, but borrow and spend. Dr. Jagdish Bhagwati, the famous
> Indian-born
> economist in the US, told Dr Manmohan Singh (Economist turned Finance
> Minister of India) that Indians wastefully save. Ask them to spend, on
> imported cars and, seriously, even on cosmetics! This will put India on
> a
> growth curve.
>
> "Saving is sin, and spending is virtue." Before you follow this neo
> economics, get some fools to save so that you can borrow from them and
> spend. This is what US has successfully done in last few decades.
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与朋友同在一片蓝天下 |
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2003-03-26 17:23:19
