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夜深人静，平心静气的阅读有关地震预测的资料
资料一：中文的帖子
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作者： 222.132.211.* 2008-5-9 19:54 山东省临沂市 网通
该网址不再展示 以上是网址 我的观点 首先说，大家不要骂，也不要说地震JU，大家知道，山东省临沂市在1970年时，李四光曾预测1972年前临沂会发生8.5以上的地震。造成了极大的恐慌。临沂是个800万以上的人口工业重镇。听说李四光预测后，临沂人逃的逃。慌的慌。把生产队的牛都杀了，造成了极大的混乱。经过很长时间才得以平息。当然，国家也很重视李四光的预测，在临沂设立了大量的地震预警机构。结果，快40年了，临沂除97年3.8级地震外就再没震过。 现在在临沂看见大片地震云，不知今明两天哪里要发生6级以上强震的临沂朋友。你能看见。临沂的地震预警机构就看不见吗。为什么他们不说呢。因为在山东临沂并没有其他的迹象可以完全确定。但是，我们的ZF早开始准备了。不然你去看看山东武警总队这两天都在干什么，济南军区，这次汶川地震准备最快的军区，为什么最快，其实他们早就戒备了，可是，谁有能想到2000公里外的临沂在5-9出现了地震云。结果四川在两天后发生了呢。要你是国家地震JU的领导，你怎么办，让临沂这个800万人口的城市全部撤离。天作孽尤可恕 自作孽不可活。让我们团结起来吧 再此，感谢地震JU的朋友们，典型的清水衙门。却要承受人民的谩骂，却还要默默的奉献。他们就是人民安插在老天那里的卧底。新时期的地下党。一群最可爱的人
资料二：美帝的，鹰文的阿题考
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Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America; June 2006; v. 96; no. 3; p. 757-795; DOI: 10.1785/0120050191
© 2006 Seismological Society of America
Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake
Kelin Wang1, Qi-Fu Chen2, Shihong Sun3 and Andong Wang4
1 Geological Survey of Canada
9860 West Saanich Road
Sidney, British Columbia, Canada
(K.W.)
2 Institute of Earthquake Science
China Earthquake Administration
63 Fuxing Avenue
Beijing 100036, People’s Republic of China
(Q.-F.C.)
3 China Earthquake Networks Center
China Earthquake Administration
Beijing, People’s Republic of China
(S.S.)
4 Liaoning Province Earthquake Administration
Shenyang, People’s Republic of China
(A.W.)
The publicized four-stage (long-term, middle-term, short-term, and imminent) prediction of the M 7.3 1975 Haicheng, China, earthquake once generated worldwide fascination. Yet the prediction process has remained mysterious because of lack of reports on real-time documentation and details of how warnings were issued. In the present work, study of declassified Chinese documents and interviews of key witnesses have allowed us to reconstruct this important history. Our findings indicate that there were two official middle-term predictions but no official short- term prediction. On the day of the earthquake, a county government issued a specific evacuation order, and actual actions taken by provincial scientists and government officials also effectively constituted an imminent prediction. These efforts saved thousands of lives, but the local construction style and time of the earthquake also contributed to minimizing fatalities. Evacuation was extremely uneven across the disaster region, and critical decisions were often made at very local levels. The most important precursor was a foreshock sequence, but other anomalies such as geodetic deformation, changes in groundwater level, color, and chemistry, and peculiar animal behavior also played a role.
这个看不到全文，大家将就着看个阿波死踹科特吧
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2008-05-19 23:35:39
